IMG INVESTIGATION · Geopolitics
US–Iran: how a 73-year rupture became a war—and what Indian investors should do now
From the 1953 coup and 1979 hostage crisis to the six-month war, the Hormuz blockade and Washington’s new sanctions offensive, this source-led investigation separates history, current facts, geopolitical scenarios and a disciplined India portfolio response.
CENTRAL FINDING
Hormuz—not Iran's own exports—is the market's pressure point.
The immediate picture is a stalemate, not a resolution. Six months after the United States and Israel began their large-scale campaign against Iran on 28 February 2026, Iran has not surrendered, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and two short-lived ceasefire arrangements have failed. Washington has signalled that fresh strikes are unlikely for the time being and has shifted toward an intensified financial campaign. Tehran is simultaneously arguing for diplomacy and claiming the ability to decide which ships may pass through the strait.
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From the 1953 coup and 1979 hostage crisis to the six-month war, the Hormuz blockade and Washington’s new sanctions offensive, this source-led investigation separates history, current facts, geopolitical scenarios and a disciplined India portfolio response.
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